Deadly Toys for an Insane Child

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

George Santayanna, “The Life of Reason”, 1906

World War I ended on November 11^th, 1918. At the cost of 17 million lives, the world finally came to peace – at least for two decades. Several military paradigms were set during the conflict, such as the growing importance of air power and the supremacy of two of the planet’s ultimate war machines: the submarine and the dreadnought, or heavy battleship. Curiously, the first two ended up making the mighty battleships that ruled the seas until the Second World War, obsolete and vulnerable. But during the first half of the century, the battleship was viewed as the most powerful military asset a nation could have. As thus, the Versailles Agreement signed by the victorious Allies in June, 1919, effectively forbade Germany from possessing any of these strategic weapons. Residual German navy assets were limited to ten Deutschland-class battleships with maximum 10 thousand ton displacement and 6-inch guns for coastal patrol. No submarines were allowed. No military aircraft were allowed. No tanks were allowed.

Of course, Germany was also obliged to sign Article 231 of the Treaty, which imposed payments of reparations to its former enemies, amounting to more than US$ 440 billion in today’s dollars. Considering the fact that Germany emerged from the war with its economy in shambles, it is easy to see why the financial penalties crippled any efforts to rebuild the country. Germany foundered economically and socially in the 20's, with hyperinflation, unemployment and despair – accompanied by a general perception that the terms set out in the Treaty were far too harsh, as stated by Sir John Maynard Keynes. Ultimately, the popular unrest brought about by the payments gave rise to a political party that promised Germans that this burden on the country’s economy would be cancelled – by force, if necessary.  The party was the National Socialist Party (“Nazi”) and its leader,  Adolf Hitler, had already written in 1922 in his book “Mein Kampf”, that if he ever came to power, Germany would denounce the Versailles Treaty and regain world power status. Hitler was elected Chancellor in 1933. What happened after that is well-known history.

What should be noted, however, is that Germany never really followed the naval power restrictions set forth in the Treaty.  As early as 1921, covert operations in Finland and Holland were designing two new classes of submarines (which would become the I and II class of U-boats, the plague of sailors in the north Atlantic during the Second World War), and the battleships that replaced the ageing fleet of survivors from WW I did not respect the 10 thousand-ton limit, nor the 6-inch caliber limit on their guns. Under the very eyes of Europe and the United States, Germany was rebuilding its military clout – and nothing happened. A german, Carl von Ossietzky, revealed the country’s secret military rebuild in 1931. Despite earning a Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts, von Ossietzky was imprisoned, tortured and eventually killed by the Nazis. The British government did nothing to stop Germany from disregarding the terms established by Versailles. The French complained but likewise did nothing. The United States solemnly ignored what was going on in Germany.  Hitler came to power in 1933, and promptly denounced the entire Versailles Treaty – as he had promised to do ten years earlier. He correctly presumed that neither England nor France would risk starting a war over a draconian treaty signed in the aftermath of World War I. The League of Nations, created in 1920 in an effort to avoid future conflicts such as those which culminated in the First World War, reprimanded Germany for ignoring arms limitations of the Treaty, but nothing else. In 1935. Britain and Germany, quite incredibly, signed the Anglo-German Naval Agreement, allowing Germany to substantially increase its navy, although setting a proportion of tonnage between British and German fleets. Of course, it also was blatantly ignored by the Germans. In September 1939 Hitler invaded Poland, and in less than six years, 60 million people would die due to the conflict. The human race had not learned from experience, once again.

The big question is: if the three major powers that defeated Germany in the First World War had effectively stopped Germany from building ever more powerful battleships, submarines and warplanes, would the Second World War ever happened? Would 60 million lives had been saved?  If the League of Nations (nowadays called United Nations) had been more than a voice, and instead had taken measures to curtail the Nazi’s drive to rebuild military supremacy, would Hitler ever had dared to invade Poland? Given Hitler’s madness, we may never know for sure. But one thing is certain: without U-boats, bombers, tanks or battleships, Germany would have been defeated in less than a year of war. How many Jews would have never known the horrors of Auschwitz or Treblinka?

One would have thought that mankind, finally learned the lesson: there is no negotiation with madmen. You do not “strike a deal” with psychopaths. You do not sign agreements with them, unless you have the power to curb their schemes, uncover their lies, expose their plots and, most of all, stop them before they start killing people on an industrial scale.  Psychos simply do not reason in the same way that normal people do.  In 1962, John F. Kennedy and Nikita Khrushchov managed to avoid mutual annihilation because neither of the two was insane. On the brink of nuclear war, the soviet leader remembered that he, too, had a family. Both sides backed down, and the world lived to see another day. But what if Khrushchov were a nutcase? What if he didn’t give a rat’s ass about killing children?  

The only way of dealing with lunatics hell-bent on destruction is by showing them that their actions will NOT be tolerated, and that if they desire to “pull a tiger by the tail”, they must know that the other side of a tiger has a formidable array of teeth to deal with. Threats do not work with lunatics, sorry to say. You do not give a loaded gun to a insane person, or let him have one. Simple as that.

A couple of months ago, North Korea detonated what they called a thermonuclear bomb, also known as H-Bomb. It is unclear if the artifact did or did not achieve full hydrogen bomb status. In my view, the argument is moot. The North Koreans, led by a clinical-case psychopath who has vowed to destroy its enemies by any means possible, has detonated a nuclear weapon. The United Nations protested. The American government protested. Almost every civilized country in the world protested. So what? Kim Jong-Un sent his best regards and continued his efforts to become the dictator of a nuclear power. A boobyhatch nuclear power, which is worse.

The United States, despite its vehement protests, did nothing. Of course: without the means to deliver a bomb to its targets in the U.S., North Korea represented a menace only  to its neighbors, right? South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and even China are the targets? Let them take care of the lunatic. Americans are safe, out of range of any missile Pyongyang can fire. Right?

Wrong.

A few days ago, North Korea launched a rocket that (according to N. Korean officials, oh so trustworthy) put an earth-reconnaissance satellite in orbit. American intelligence admitted that the rocket achieved orbit altitude. One is led to wonder what possible use North Korea would have for whatever they put in orbit. Probably nothing important. That is beside the point. The point is that North Korea now has intercontinental ballistic missile capacity – or almost. Experts have stated that putting a missile into orbit is one thing, getting it to re-enter the atmosphere without burning up in the process is another. And hitting a target, still another. But given Pyongyang’s progress in this field, who dares to doubt that developing this technology is just a matter of time?

So, at the end of the day, North Korea is knocking on the door to Doomsday Club. And knocking real loudly. Some countries use their nuclear capacity as deterrents to aggression. No one in his sane mind would ever consider using the damn things, right? It’s just not good for business, so to speak. Thousands of innocent civilians dead or dying, radioactive fallout… the press headlines would be terrible. Not a single government would hold its act together after using a nuclear bomb. Not after Hiroshima and Nagasaki. But… what about Kim Jong-Un? He doesn’t really care if a couple hundred thousand of his fellow countrymen get nuked – as long as he nukes somebody first. In a more optimistic view, he will use his nuclear capacity as blackmail. “Lift sanctions or face oblivion, you imperialist pigs!”. Kim Jong-Un has repeatedly stated that South Korea’s effort to broadcast into North Korea is “an act of war”. What if he threatens his neighbor with annihilation, even if at the cost of his own?

And, seemingly, he soon will wield the power to threaten the U.S.  What are Americans supposed to do now? Clean out all those nuclear shelters they built in their backyards during the 60’s?

The lesson was taught twice in the last one hundred years. Do not trust crazy people. Do something about it.

It is time the United States had a hard talk with its Russian and Chinese counterparts, and showed them that if North Korea is left unchecked with its atomic weapons program, mankind is at risk. And then, no more talk. Just take that capacity away. It might be a public relations nightmare, but the alternative is worse.  Much worse.

Let’s see if people get the lesson right this time. Before it is too late.